What the Iran Deal Means for the World Economy

Think about petroleum, planes, and pistachios

With Obama securing enough Senate votes to support an historic accord, it looks like Iran is closer to emerging from some of the financial restrictions imposed to discourage it from developing nuclear weapons. Here’s what the deal means economically. 

۱-Iran

Iran is clearly the top winner, with its $388 billion economy likely to reach 6 percent growth as early as 2016, according to Garbis Iradian, chief economist for the Middle East & North Africa at the Institute of International Finance.

۲-Oil prices

As home to the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, Iran is likely to increase its production as much as 800,000 barrels a day in 2016. Still, even as it accounts about 1 percent of today’s global oil supply, it may not have much of an impact on an already oversupplied market, according to a report this week from A.T. Kearney. The firm is projecting that Brent oil prices in 2016 will most likely stay in the range of $45 to $65 a barrel.

۳-The U.S. 

Even after the nuclear deal is implemented, sanctions preventing most U.S. companies from dealing with Iran will remain in place. The agreement won’t move the needle on U.S. growth as a whole in 2016, says George Abed, senior counselor and director for Africa & the Middle East at the IIF. It won’t affect global growth, either, he says. One significant exception is the aviation industry. The deal calls for the U.S. to grant licenses to allow the sale of commercial passenger aircraft, as Iran needs to invest at least some $۲۰ billion to update its aging planes. 

There are also American companies for which the deal might be a threat, such as California pistachio growers. Iran’s pistachio crop was worth more than $1 billion last year, comparable to what U.S. farmers grew, and the deal says the U.S. will allow Iranian pistachio imports into the U.S. 

۴-Europe 

For Europe, removing international sanctions against the Islamic Republic may mean regaining its presanctions status as Iran’s biggest trading partner and restoring what were once $32 billion of economic links. Trade between Europe and Iran plunged to about $9 billion when sanctions began to be tightened, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. As European exports of machinery and industrial equipment to Iran tailed off, China stepped in to fill the void. By 2013, China was Iran’s biggest partner, with trade amounting to more than $41 billion.

European delegations began courting Iran well before the nuclear deal was reached, as business leaders seek new sources of cheap oil and a new market to invest in. 

If recent history is an indicator, which European country has the most business ties and activity with Iran? Italy ranks as the biggest importer of Iranian goods, while Germany is the top European exporter to Iran, according to Eurostat.

Ref: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/what-the-iran-deal-means-for-the-world-economy


Glossary


Pistachio   /pəˈstaSHēˌō,pəˈstäSHēˌō/   N     


   

secure  /səˈkyo͝or/   V        

succeed in obtaining (something), especially with difficulty.

“the division secured a major contract”

synonyms:   obtain, acquire, gain, get, get possession of;

informal  get hold of, land

“the division secured a major contract”


it looks like    

It seems likely that,

It looks like they’ll invite us to dinner


emerge   /ɪˈmɜrdʒ/          V        

to come out of something or out from behind something

emerge from:

After a few weeks, the caterpillar emerges from its cocoon.

To appear slightly, suddenly or temporarily:

emerge, pop up, spring up..


impose   /ɪmˈpəʊz/   V

force (an unwelcome decision or ruling) on someone.

“the decision was theirs and was not imposed on them by others”

synonyms:   foist, force, thrust, inflict, obtrude, press, urge;

informal saddle someone with, land someone with, lumber someone with

“he imposed his ideas on the art director”


discourage   /dɪsˈkʌrɪdʒ/   N

prevent or try to prevent (something) by showing disapproval or creating difficulties.

“the plan is designed to discourage the use of private cars”

synonyms:   prevent, stop, put a stop to, avert, fend off, stave off, ward off;

inhibit, hinder, check, curb, obstruct, suppress, put a damper on, throw cold water on

“he looked the other way to discourage further conversation”


boost  /bo͞ost/   N

an increase or improvement.

“a boost in exports”

synonyms:   increase, expansion, upturn, upsurge, upswing, rise, elevation, escalation, augmentation, improvement, development, advance, growth, boom, spurt; More

informal   hike, step up, jack up

“the economy will benefit from a boost in sales”

antonyms:   decrease


GDP  

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the size of an economy.

تولید ناخالص داخلی   


reserve   /rɪˈzɜː(r)v/   [countable] [usually plural]  

a supply of something that a country or an organization can use when they need to

“Germany’s coal reserves were concentrated in a few large fields.”

“The company has steadily drained its cash reserves.”

“the national bank’s foreign exchange reserves


account   /əˈkaʊnt/   V        

consider or regard in a specified way.

“her visit could not be accounted a success”

synonyms:   consider, regard as, reckon, hold to be, think, think of as, look on as, view as, see as, take for, judge, adjudge, count, deem, rate, gauge, interpret as

“her visit could not be accounted a success”


oversupply   /əʊvəsəˈplʌɪ/   V        

supply with too much or too many.

“the country was oversupplied with lawyers”


project   /prəˈdʒɛkt/   V        

estimate or forecast (something) on the basis of present trends.

“spending was projected at £۷۲,۹۰۰ million”

synonyms:   forecast, predict, estimate, calculate, gauge, reckon, expect, extrapolate

“substantial growth of over six per cent is projected for 1993 and 1994”


implement   /ˈɪmplɪmɛnt/   V        

put (a decision, plan, agreement, etc.) into effect.

“the scheme to implement student loans”

synonyms:   execute, apply, put into effect/action, put into practice, carry out, carry through, perform, enact, administer;

fulfil, discharge, accomplish, bring about, achieve, realize, contrive, effect;

enforce, impose;

rare effectuate

“the cost of implementing the new law”


in place        Adj        

In an original position.


move the needle on                           

make a noticeable difference in something

“They canceled the marketing campaign when it failed to move the needle in sales.”

“The philanthropists wanted to develop a program that would move the needle on the problem of malaria in developing countries.”


senior   /ˈsiːnɪə,ˈsiːnjə/   Adj     

Being in a position,rank, or gradeaboveothers of thesameset or class:

“a senior officer; the senior ship in the battle group.”


counselor   /ˈkaʊns(ə)lə/               

A person who gives advice on a specified subject:

“a debt counselor

“This is a heartfelt and very practical book, which includes chapters with advice for pregnancy center counselors.”


aviation   /eɪvɪˈeɪʃ(ə)n/   N        

The flying or operating of aircraft:

[as modifier]: the aviation industry

“It is easy to see why wrecks of this nature are attractive to aircraft restorers and aviation museums.”


grant   /ɡrɑːnt/   N        

Give (a right, power, property, etc.) formally or legally to: they will grant you asylum

“grant voting rights to citizens”

“grant diplomatic immunity.”


aging   /ˈeɪdʒɪŋ/   Adj     

(Of a thing) reaching the end of useful life:

“the world’s ageing fleet of oil tankers

“But these aging aircraft are reaching the end of their lifespans.”


opportunity   /ˌɑpərˈtunəti/   N        

A chance for advancement, progress or profit.

“Having a holiday is a great opportunity to relax.”

“I wanted to become a professional, but because of my financial situation there were no opportunities.”


growers   /ˈɡrəʊə/   N        

a person who grows a particular type of crop.

“a fruit grower”


crop   /krɒp/   N        

a cultivated plant that is grown on a large scale commercially, especially a cereal, fruit, or vegetable.

“the main crops were oats and barley”


comparable   /ˈkɒmp(ə)rəb(ə)l/   Adj     

able to be likened to another; similar.

“the situation in Holland is comparable to that in England”

synonyms:   similar, close, near, approximate, akin, equivalent, corresponding, commensurate, proportional, proportionate, parallel, analogous, related;

like, matching;

bordering on, verging on, approaching;

informal   not a million miles away from;

rare   commensurable

“he had an income comparable to that of a king”


restore   /rəˈstôr/   V         · 

return (someone or something) to a former condition, place, or position.

“the effort to restore him to office isn’t working”


link   /liNGk/   N           

A relationship between two things or situations, especially where one thing affects the other: “investigating a link between pollution and forest decline


plunge   /plənj/   V        

to fall quickly from a high position

“It was still dark when the helicopter plunged 500 feet into the ocean.”

“His car had plunged off the mountain road in heavy rain.”

To move, or to move something downwards:

fall, lower, come down


tighten   /ˈtītn/   V        

tighten something to make something become stricter

“to tighten security”

“The government is to tighten controls on the sale of alcohol.”


compile   /kəmˈpīl/   V        

to gather together:

“to compile data.”


tail off        PhV    

tail off (or away)

gradually diminish in amount, strength, or intensity.

“the economic boom was beginning to tail off”

synonyms:   fade, wane, ebb, dwindle, decrease, lessen, diminish, decline, subside, abate, drop off, peter out, taper off;

let up, ease off, die away, die down, come to an end

“her voice tailed off”


step in                                                                

To enter into an activity or a situation.


fill a/the void   

to replace some thing important that you have lost, or to provide something important that you need

The country needs a strong leader to help fill the void left by the death of the president. Religion helped me fill a void in my life.


amount   /əˈmount/   V        

come to be (the total) when added together.

“losses amounted to over 10 million dollars”

synonyms:   add up to, come to, run (to), be, total

“the bill amounted to $50”


delegation   /ˌdeləˈɡāSH(ə)n/   N        

A person or group of persons officially elected or appointed to represent another or others.

a group or body of delegates :

“Our club sent a delegation to the rally.”


court   /kôrt/   V        

pay special attention to (someone) in an attempt to win their support or favor.

“Western politicians courted the leaders of the newly independent states”

synonyms:   curry favor with, cultivate, try to win over, make up to, ingratiate oneself with;

informal suck up to, butter up

“a newspaper editor who was courted by senior politicians”


Dry up       informal          

(of something perceived as a continuous flow or source) decrease and stop.

“his commissions began to dry up”

synonyms:   dwindle, subside, peter out, wane, taper off, ebb, come to a halt/end, run out, give out, disappear, vanish

“foreign investment may dry up”


importer                                

One who, or that which, imports: especially a person or company importing goods into a country.

“India is the world’s biggest importer of gold.”

“The data importer has crashed. Did we receive a corrupted file?”


exporter   uk   /ɪkˈspɔː.tər/  us   /-ˈspɔːr.t̬ɚ/   N[C]

a ​person, ​country, or ​business that ​sellsgoods to another ​country: Japan is a ​major exporter of ​cars.

 


We are going to learn English through comprehensible inputs meaning anything familiar to us such as reading of Iran news every day, so this is a place where we would like to share our assignments. We would be grateful if you could give us your comments and feedback. Please leave your questions regarding the text in comments below as well.