One of the key components of last year’s OPEC production deal was the proviso that the Islamic Republic of Iran could continue increasing production by several hundred thousand bpd, until it had reached its 2012 level of output. The agreement came after months of Iranian boasts regarding its national crude oil production, which had surged by nearly 1 million bpd after sanctions on its economy were lifted in January 2015.

Now Iran is pumping 3.8 million bpd, its highest level of production since October 2008 according to OPEC data, and national production seems to be levelling off, at least for the moment. Despite the frequent assertions that Iran’s “true” production ceiling should be north of 4 million bpd, a level Iran hasn’t reached since 2011, it would appear that production from OPEC’s third-largest producer will remain at or near 3.8 million bpd. Iranian ambitions will run up against market realities, as well as the necessity to play nice with OPEC, at least for the time being.

Proviso    noun [ C ] uk /prəˈvaɪ.zəʊ/ us /prəˈvaɪ.zoʊ/ plural provisos

a statement in an agreement, saying that a particular thing must happen before another can:

“He was released from prison with/on the proviso that he doesn’t leave the country.”


Barrels Per Day

Boast     /boʊst/ disapproving

an act of talking with excessive pride and self-satisfaction.

“It is her proud boast that she has never missed a single episode of the show.”

Level off   phrasal verb

If a rate or amount levels off, it stops rising or falling and stays at the same level:

“House prices now seem to be levelling off after the steep rises of the last few years.”

“Unemployment rose to ten percent and then levelled off.”

Assertion    noun  /əˈsɝː.ʃən/

a statement that you strongly believe is true:

“I certainly don’t agree with his assertion that men are better drivers than women.”

North of

used to say that an amount is more than the stated amount:

“The share price is expected to rise north of $20.”

Run up against

to experience an unexpected difficulty:

“The plans for the new bridge ran up against strong local opposition.”

“the proposal has been dropped because it could run up against Federal regulations”

For the time being

for a limited period:

“Leave the ironing for the time being – I’ll do it later.”